The Day is Finally Here

After what seemed like the earliest start to a presidential race, after numerous debates (many of them pointless), After months and months of campaign ads and waking up in the morning to read a new headline on Drudge about one candidate attacking the other, and after so long that it seemed like the day would never come the Iowa Caucus is finally here, which means that not only do we have this caucus, but New Hampshire is just four days away. We enter into a race for the nomination that this country has not seen since 1928, and that is a race without an incumbent running. This is the first election in 80 years, in which neither a President or Vice-President is running. So, that mean all bets are off, you never know who will win the day when it is all said and done. 

The Republican race is closer than anyone has seen in a long time. Four candidates stand in close proximity to each other in the polls, and within the margin of error, which means that this race could go to either Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, or McCain. Many people are looking at Iowa as being Romney vs. Huckabee, and the way the two stand in state polls this might not be a bad assessment. Over the last month Mike Huckabee has generated much heat among Republican voters, and has passed Mitt Romney in Iowa polls only by a slim margin. Romney needs to take Iowa and/or New Hampshire, because he has put most of his money and most of his resources in the early states in hopes that by winning the two it would be the key to winning the overall nomination. Romney needs to get past Huckabee in Iowa, and New Hampshire is never a sure bet. John McCain shocked many people in 2000 when he won the New Hampshire primary and became a serious contender for the GOP nomination, but overall failed to run a smart campaign, but nevertheless New Hampshire Republicans like John McCain. He won the state back in 2000, and you never know, he could do it again. If Romney loses Iowa to Huckabee it will deliver a heavy blow to his campaign, but if Mitt loses both Iowa and New Hampshire it will be a serious blow and Romney just might be out of the race, because as I said before, Romney put almost everything (time, money, resources, energy) in the early states and cannot afford to lose both. Let us not forget about Rudy Giuliani. While I am not a huge fan of Giuliani, and not very many conservatives are he still has a lot of support in the Republican Party. New Hampshire, and maybe even Iowa could go to him, although at this point I rather doubt it.

Susan Estrich has claimed that Mike Huckabee is a “dream” for Democrats, and that if he gets the nomination she will be dancing at the Inaugural Ball. I don’t know how she plans on getting an invitation, because in that scenario we will have a Republican president. If Huckabee wins the nomination we may just see a candidate that can stand against Hillary, and against Obama for that matter. The only person Huckabee would have to seriously worry about is probably Edwards. Huckabee is very charismatic, and likable among voters. He went from the bottom of the polls to the top in a matter of a couple of months, which shows just how much Republican voters have come to like him. He will probably have the evangelical vote, which is almost key in an election. He is someone who has lead bipartisan leadership when he was governor of Arkansas, which, despite promises, none of the democratic candidates have been successful at or wiling to do in Congress. In a race like this you need someone who has had experience in an executive role. Mike Huckabee has that experience, and despite what some nay sayers might say, having been First Lady is not enough to claim that you have executive experience. Voters seem to be responding well to Huckabee’s refusal to run a “negative campaign”. Why? Because voters are tired of all the negative ads. They are tired of reading about the mudslinging that goes among candidates, because while these candidates are putting a lot of focus on each other they are turning their attention away from the voters. Voters like the fact that Huckabee is refusing to run negative ads against his counterparts even though he has been the target of much criticism ever since he came on top of the GOP polls.

It is not clear who will get the GOP nomination. Huckabee has generated a lot of momentum, but that does not mean he will come out as the Republican nominee. The race is just too close right now for anyone to make a prediction. One thing does seem to be clear though. On the Democratic side it is a three way race between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. On the Republican side it is a four way race between Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. The White House campaign is off, and the race is extremely tight in both parties.